News
General Interest
2008 North American Seasonal Assessment Workshop
May 9, 2008
By Stephanie Doster
The southern half of Arizona and New Mexico and the southern tips of California and Nevada are forecast to have above-normal significant fire potential during the May through August wildfire season, according to a report released this week by experts from The University of Arizona and a number of state and federal agencies.
The fire potential report for western North America was written by fire, weather, and climate specialists who met on April 22–24, 2008 at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, for the third annual North American Seasonal Assessment Workshop.
Significant fire potential refers to the likelihood that a wildland fire will require additional resources from outside the area in which the fire originated, said Gregg Garfin, deputy director of science translation and outreach at the UA’s Institute for the Study of Planet Earth (ISPE) and an investigator for the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, one of the workshop’s sponsors. Areas designated “above-normal” are likely to require additional external resources during the forecast period.
Workshop participants forecast above-normal significant fire potential across much of western Canada, the central Rocky Mountains, central Plains, southwestern United States, and northwestern and northeastern México.
“Extensive grass and herb growth, forecasts for increased chances of below-average spring precipitation and above-average spring temperatures, and seasonal windiness have fire specialists concerned about this year’s fire season in lower elevations of the Southwest,” Garfin said.
Experts also point to an increased potential for larger and more active fires in southern and central Arizona due to significant growth of buffelgrass, an invasive grass that provides fine fuel continuity in areas that were historically sparse, Garfin said.
Between January 1 and May 3, wildfire has burned 19,546 acres in Arizona and 226,829 in New Mexico, according to the Southwest Coordination Center, an interagency body that coordinates the mobilization of wildland fire resources throughout the Southwest. In comparison, 12,966 acres in Arizona and 21,697 acres in New Mexico had burned between January 1 and May 15, 2007.
Significantly increased fire potential is predicted for May and June in the Southwest and eastern Colorado. The likelihood for above-average fire potential will increase after May and through the summer in the western Great Basin, southern Alaska, and southern California.
“Usually, when we have these kinds of conditions, fire officials urge extreme caution with fire—including campfires and even backyard barbeques for folks living in the foothills and urban fringe—especially in rangelands and where urban and wild areas meet,” Garfin said. “Also, sparks from trailing or damaged mufflers or other metal from an automobile, or a lit cigarette tossed out the window of a car can easily ignite roadside grasses.”
In addition to the fire forecast for the West and Southwest, the report predicts below-normal fire potential for portions of Quebec, Labrador, and Newfoundland. Elsewhere, fire potential is expected to be normal through August.
The workshop was also sponsored by the National Interagency Fire Center, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Desert Research Institute, and Predictive Services.